Gun violence is often framed as either a people problem, driven by retaliation, social networks, and repeat offenders, or a place problem, rooted in persistent neighborhood conditions and high-risk micro-locations.
The latest research by Alaina De. Biasi, Jeff Rojek, and Edmund McGarrell matters because it shows why that either-or framing is incomplete. By examining how shootings cluster in both space and time and how crime guns move across incidents, the study demonstrates that gun violence is frequently shaped by the interaction between people, guns, and places. That insight points to more precise, actionable strategies for preventing violence before it escalates.
Using ballistic evidence from the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN), the study analyzes more than 5,400 shooting incidents in Detroit to identify near-repeat patterns, shootings that occur close together geographically and temporally. Rather than treating shootings as isolated events, the research reveals that a meaningful share are connected. Some are linked by the reuse of the same firearm across multiple incidents, others by recurring high-risk locations, and many by a combination of both. These patterns are not long-term abstractions; they emerge rapidly, often within the first two weeks and within a few blocks of an initial shooting, creating short but critical windows for intervention.
The practical value of this work lies in what it makes visible for decision-makers. By integrating ballistic intelligence into near-repeat analysis, the study helps distinguish between violence that is likely driven by circulating, multi-use crime guns and violence that concentrates around specific places and routine activity nodes. That distinction matters operationally. It informs whether responses should emphasize focused enforcement on individuals and networks, place-based prevention and environmental strategies, or integrated approaches that align both.
For investigators, this paper is worth reading because it translates complex forensic and spatial analysis into operational insight. It shows how crime gun intelligence can move beyond case-by-case investigation to support proactive, prevention-oriented decision-making, helping agencies and stakeholders direct limited resources toward the people, places, and moments where risk is highest, and time is most limited.
Click HERE to view the latest NIBIN research.
